The calendar is the story today. Retail sales hit the tape at 8:30, the housing market index at 10:00, and at 2:00 the new Federal Reserve chairman speaks. That last one is going to move the market, so temper your expectations and plan for extreme volatility or chop until then.
Yesterday ran up and came right back down. Today's candle has already taken back about half of that move, and price is sitting on 29,375, the green line, as support.
The one hour shows the overnight session bar by bar: the Asia open printed a bullish candle, then a pullback, then a bullish engulfing off that pullback, with price riding above the VWAP into the morning. Above that, the green zone box is the major resistance, turned away near 29,397.
The trend line is drawn from Tuesday September 15th, the 21:00 candle, and it holds the upward structure.
This is trading education, not a signal or a promise.
Levels drawn before the open
Every level below was drawn on the chart before 9:30 ET and checked against the price axis. Each one was graded after the close by the same fixed rules, whichever way it went.
| Level | Role at the open | Result | What price did |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29,375.50 | support | broke | reached 09:30 ET, a 5-min close 80.25 pts through at 14:50 |
| 29,327.25 | support | broke | reached 14:35 ET, a 5-min close 32.00 pts through at 14:50 |
Session 09:30-16:00 ET: open 29,386.75, high 29,549.75, low 29,053.00, close 29,254.25. Reached = traded within 5 points. Broke = a 5-minute close more than 10 points through after reaching it. Held = reached and never broke. Support or resistance is set by where the level sat against the opening price. A level is a reference drawn in advance, not a forecast, and a held level is not a trade result.
The plan
The continuation case is a hold above the trend line with 29,375 doing its job underneath. The failure case is a break of that trend line by the time the market opens, a retest of 29,375, and then a move down toward 29,327 or a retest of the VWAP. Both branches were on the chart before the open, and the 2:00 event sits on top of all of it.
In the video
- 0:00Wednesday open: up 137 points, around 29,383
- 0:09The calendar: retail sales, housing index, and a new Fed chair at 2:00
- 0:23Temper your expectations: extreme volatility or chop
- 0:37Yesterday's run up, and today giving back half of it
- 0:4429,375 as support, the green line
- 0:58The one hour: reading the Asia session in three bars
- 1:14Riding above the VWAP into the green zone resistance
- 1:26Drawing the trend line from Tuesday's 21:00 candle
- 1:43The five minute: what continuation looks like
- 2:01The failure case: trend line, 29,375, then 29,327 or the VWAP
- 2:15Questions, and the candlestick challenge
Short clips from this prep
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Trading education only. Not financial advice, not a signal, and no promise of any result. Full disclaimer.