Strong support sits at 29,069, the purple level, and that is the major one holding underneath. We are still technically trading inside the Tuesday, August 4th candle, and price is looking strong to the upside. The gap to the downside has already been filled.
The calendar matters today: ADP unemployment at 8:15, New York Empire State manufacturing at 8:30, and 20-year bond purchases at 1:00 PM. Those should move the market.
The one hour shows the overnight session. The gap did not fill completely, but not every gap does, and it came well more than halfway. Support held at 29,278, price ran to the top and broke the VWAP, and the ray is drawn from the four o'clock candle.
On the five minute, a double bottom into a lower high, then a push to the upside.
This is trading education, not a signal or a promise.
Levels drawn before the open
Every level below was drawn on the chart before 9:30 ET and checked against the price axis. Each one was graded after the close by the same fixed rules, whichever way it went.
| Level | Role at the open | Result | What price did |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29,375.50 | support | broke | reached 09:30 ET, a 5-min close 32.75 pts through at 10:10 |
| 29,278.25 | support | broke | reached 10:40 ET, a 5-min close 10.25 pts through at 10:45 |
| 29,069.50 | support | not reached | never within 5 pts; closest 138.00 pts away |
Session 09:30-16:00 ET: open 29,420.50, high 29,453.50, low 29,207.50, close 29,251.50. Reached = traded within 5 points. Broke = a 5-minute close more than 10 points through after reaching it. Held = reached and never broke. Support or resistance is set by where the level sat against the opening price. A level is a reference drawn in advance, not a forecast, and a held level is not a trade result.
The plan
Price is outside the trend line. The upside case is a break of resistance at 29,400 and a run toward 29,500. The downside case is a failure that closes below the VWAP and breaks support at 29,375, and then it comes back down with force. Both branches were on the chart before the open.
In the video
- 0:00Tuesday open: up 260, around 29,404, bearish candle
- 0:17The gap up and the support at 29,069
- 0:42Still inside the August 4th candle, gap already filled
- 0:55The calendar: ADP, Empire State, 20-year bonds
- 1:13The one hour: the gap, support at 29,278, breaking the VWAP
- 1:50Drawing the ray from the four o'clock candle
- 2:07The five minute: double bottom, lower high
- 2:36The plan: 29,500 on a break, or back down under 29,375
- 2:51Questions go to ciycapital.com
Short clips from this prep
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Trading education only. Not financial advice, not a signal, and no promise of any result. Full disclaimer.