The calendar is front-loaded: S&P Global flash PMIs at 9:45, Fed Barr at 10:05, and crude oil inventories at 10:30. Three items inside forty-five minutes, all of them before eleven.
The map from yesterday got graded overnight, and that is the whole point of drawing it early. The zone's upper edge sat at 31,089. Price went up and reached it, put in a pin bar, and rejected. The one hour closed a bearish engulfing candle off that rejection, and price came all the way back down to support at 30,910, where it bounced.
This is trading education, not a signal or a promise.
Levels drawn before the open
Every level below was drawn on the chart before 9:30 ET and checked against the price axis. Each one was graded after the close by the same fixed rules, whichever way it went.
| Level | Role at the open | Result | What price did |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31,530.25 | resistance | not reached | never within 5 pts; closest 517.25 pts away |
| 31,089.50 | resistance | not reached | never within 5 pts; closest 76.50 pts away |
| 30,910.00 | support | broke | reached 09:35 ET, a 5-min close 30.25 pts through at 09:45 |
| 30,731.75 | support | broke | reached 10:10 ET, a 5-min close 13.50 pts through at 10:10 |
Session 09:30-16:00 ET: open 31,005.50, high 31,013.00, low 30,642.75, close 30,770.50. Reached = traded within 5 points. Broke = a 5-minute close more than 10 points through after reaching it. Held = reached and never broke. Support or resistance is set by where the level sat against the opening price. A level is a reference drawn in advance, not a forecast, and a held level is not a trade result.
The plan
So the question this morning is whether that was a pullback inside an uptrend or the start of something that gives the whole move back. Both branches are on the chart.
Above, the green zone runs to roughly 30,980, and a retest of it is the first thing to watch. A strong bounce into the nine o'clock hour keeps the upside case alive, and the target drawn above everything is 31,530, the all-time high.
Below, 30,910 is the line that matters. Losing it and closing under it hands back what Monday and Tuesday built, and the six minute already shows a bullish engulfing trying to push back up into the VWAP, the blue line. Failing to reclaim the VWAP is the tell for the downside.
A level is not an entry. The reason 30,910 is worth watching this morning is that it was already drawn before price came to it, not because it bounced once.
In the video
- 0:00Wednesday open: NQ down 104, trading around 30,924
- 0:09The calendar: flash PMIs 9:45, Fed Barr 10:05, crude inventories 10:30
- 0:43Still constructive, but a pullback off Monday
- 0:56Turning the levels on, and what the chart did overnight
- 1:40The next target above: the all-time high at 31,530
- 2:08The one hour: the overnight run into the zone
- 2:25The pin bar, the rejection, and the bearish engulfing
- 2:42Back down to support at 30,910, and the bounce
- 2:54The zone to 30,980, and the retest
- 3:08A strong bounce, or losing 30,910
- 3:31The six minute: bullish engulfing back into the VWAP
- 3:46Questions, and the sign-off
Short clips from this prep
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Trading education only. Not financial advice, not a signal, and no promise of any result. Full disclaimer.