The US calendar is quiet today — Goolsbee spoke at 6:30 this morning, Lagarde is at 11:00, and that is close to the whole of it. The weight is later in the week: Flash PMIs Wednesday at 9:45, jobless claims Thursday at 8:30, durable goods and the revised UoM numbers Friday. A quiet Monday is not a small day, it just means the tape has to supply its own catalyst.
On the daily the map is straightforward. Price is climbing into the wick of the Monday August 17 candle, and above that the next thing standing in the way is the July 1 candle. Neither is a target so much as a place the market has to get through. Looking out to the end of the week, the upside levels are drawn at 30,410 and then 30,731.
This is trading education, not a signal or a promise.
Levels drawn before the open
Every level below was drawn on the chart before 9:30 ET and checked against the price axis. Each one was graded after the close by the same fixed rules, whichever way it went.
| Level | Role at the open | Result | What price did |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30,731.75 | resistance | broke | reached 14:05 ET, a 5-min close 23.00 pts through at 14:20 |
| 30,410.75 | resistance | broke | reached 09:50 ET, a 5-min close 26.00 pts through at 10:10 |
| 30,314.50 | resistance | broke | reached 09:40 ET, a 5-min close 25.25 pts through at 09:40 |
| 30,211.50 | support | held | reached 09:30 ET, no 5-min close through; price moved 651.25 pts away after |
| 30,146.75 | support | not reached | never within 5 pts; closest 69.75 pts away |
Session 09:30-16:00 ET: open 30,221.50, high 30,862.75, low 30,216.50, close 30,783.50. Reached = traded within 5 points. Broke = a 5-minute close more than 10 points through after reaching it. Held = reached and never broke. Support or resistance is set by where the level sat against the opening price. A level is a reference drawn in advance, not a forecast, and a held level is not a trade result.
The plan
The one hour carries yesterday's trend line, still intact, with price above the VWAP and sitting on support at 30,211. The bullish case is continuation off that support — but a pullback first is the more honest version of it, and both branches were drawn before the open.
If 30,211 gives way, the two places to watch underneath are 30,146, the green line, and the VWAP below it. A retest of either and then a continuation higher is one scenario. Losing both is a different day entirely.
To the upside, a bounce from here puts a new high for the week at 30,314 on the table. The five minute shows the same thing the one hour does: a clean upward trend, consolidating now, no real movement yet. Either it bounces off the trend line, or it opens below it and comes down to 30,146 and the VWAP.
A level is not an entry. Acceptance above 30,211 is what makes the continuation real — watching price get there is not the same as watching it hold there.
In the video
- 0:00Monday open: NQ up 325, trading around 30,242
- 0:10Extremely bullish, and the August 17 wick overhead
- 0:21Above that: the July 1 candle
- 0:30Turning the levels on, and what still needed drawing
- 0:58The week's upside: 30,410, then 30,731
- 1:09The one hour: yesterday's trend line, and above the VWAP
- 1:24Support at 30,211, and why a pullback comes first
- 1:32If 30,211 breaks: 30,146, the green line, or the VWAP
- 1:50The five minute: clean uptrend, consolidating
- 2:06Bounce off the trend line, or open below it
- 2:21The upside: a new high for the week at 30,314
- 2:31Questions, and the sign-off
Short clips from this prep
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Trading education only. Not financial advice, not a signal, and no promise of any result. Full disclaimer.